Atlantic Hurricanes: How Scientists Observe and Predict the Season

Warm sea surface temperatures and low sea level pressures observed over the tropical Atlantic in June and July, combined with an active early season in the deep tropics, have prompted experts to raise the possibility of more hurricanes in 2008 than previously predicted.

NASA scientists have recently made discoveries about the behavior and nature of these gigantic storms, but hurricanes are really just manifestations of natural processes interacting. Observations from space have enabled NASA and other research institutions to develop sophisticated computer models, too.

Video: How NASA and NOAA Work Together


Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

These models allow scientists to simulate and test hypothesizes about hurricanes, which in turn facilitate development of new, more accurate predictive tools. The Colorado State University hurricane team is calling for a total of 17 named storms with five becoming intense hurricanes of category three or greater.

Five named storms have been observed so far this season including Hurricane Bertha, which was the longest-lived tropical cyclone that has ever formed during July, and Hurricane Dolly, which made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane in south Texas on July 23.

In 2004 and 2005, 13 major hurricanes formed in the Atlantic basin — seven of them striking the U.S. coast. In 2004, Hurricanes Charley, Ivan and Jeanne made landfall followed in 2005 by Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

"Those years were anomalies," Dr. William Gray said. "We are in an active cycle in the Atlantic basin that is expected to last another 15 to 20 years. We believe this is part of a natural ocean cycle and is not the result of human-induced increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide."

Hurricanes are the most powerful accumulations of energy on Earth. Nothing else even comes close. They are fearsome tropical storms that spring to life roughly the same time every year, churning up oceans and shredding the nerves of residents who live along coastal zones.

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